Monthly Archives: July 2015

Watchlist for 7-30-2015 – $SGYP, $RJET, $NYMX

Today’s Plan:

Ok, trading yesterday, finished green so thats a good thing. Ended the day kind of on a sour note with no conviction on $RJET. At this point looks to have been a solid overnight hold. And I missed (chickened out) of taking $SGYP so kind of sitting here in a pissy mood at this point. That coupled with not a ton on scan I’m lacking motivation.

Today’s List: Full list from Yahoo Finance

Synergy Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SGYP) -NasdaqGS

Hoping for pops over $10.

Target: $10.20

SGYP

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) -NasdaqGS

Would like to see a squeeze I’m thinking everyone is piling in around the $5.00 level.

Target: $5.50

RJET

Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation (NYMX) -NasdaqCM

Keeps hanging around, so I’ll only short big pops.

Target: New highs, $3.50 or so.

RJET

When will I go long an @investorslive warning?!?! $RJET @swedepilot

Take a moment and match up the comments below with the highlighted chart (oval and crosshairs).

An often overlooked value of Nate’s trading experience is his ability to spot potential short squeezes and GREAT long setups. Which I have traded like ONCE in 7 years…

(Jul 29-10:58) InvestorsLive: RJET repeating myself b/c I know people ignore — for many its best to wait for a big craack and FAILED follow thru momentum — imo lotta traders just chased the crack and gets super crowded then have to squeeze them out before any downside

(Jul 29-10:58) InvestorsLive: SSR = pops only not chase

 

RJET

Textbook Trading – Notes and Review of Chapter 9 – Brokers by @investorslive

Table of contents:

If you find these notes and reviews useful please consider purchasing Textbook Trading through this affiliate link:

Summary:

This was a quick but useful chapter. I don’t have a ton to relay because its all in the presentation and my notes below. I’ll go over what Nate goes over, but you really need to see the chapter to get any real good use out of it.

While this chapter had limited value for me I still think its GREAT for beginning traders or traders new to pennystocks. I knew basically everything in this chapter just because I’ve been around pennystocks and the applicable brokers for years and years. But if I had to guess what the most questions I get revolve around, it seems to always be, what broker do I use, what software do I use, etc. So many new traders think some “secret” broker and super duper quant mad scientist software is out there. While this does not exist, there is indeed a HUGE advantage to having the right broker and the right software. But it is by no means a silver bullet.

brokers

Nate goes through the three best brokers at the time. While some of the clearing firms and pricing have changed, the info is still applicable today. VERY simple but VERY useful if you are new to pennystocks and have an account at Etrade or TD or some other big broker.

The chapter wraps up with a very handy tutorial on DAS trader. While I love DAS and most hardcore traders use it. It is for sure a “pro tool” and is not very user friendly to the beginner. I remember the first time I fired it up, I was like “WTF do I do now?!?”. Nate does a great job in running through all the basic getting started setup in 10 -15 minutes. This could be worth HOURS of frustration if you try and do it on your own.

PDT

Again, no trading how to in this section, but VERY useful info that you would have a hard time finding elsewhere. Nothing top secret but you could spend days googling and bugging other traders to get the same info you get in a 30 minute chapter.

Notes:

-Options for trading under PDT
-Get what you pay for, usually cheap/free is worthless – Zecco – Robin Hood etc
-Flat fee OTC
-Nas – per share
-Deals/discounts for DVD buyers
Centerpoint
     -ETC and Wedbush
     -great borrow list
     -OTC’s/Pink
     -borrows bell to bell vs IB “running out of shares”
     -Options for borrows via locate firms
     -DAS Trader and Sterling
     -DVD has discounts in this presentation – in FAQ
 
Speedtrader
     -DAS
     -I think some of this is out to date, I think Speedtrader is even BETTER today
     -Flat rate – great for OTC’s since you might be 100’s of thousands of shares
     -Discounts on DVD
DAS Trader Demo
     -Very utilitarian, not sexy but most effective
     -HOD list
     -“Anchor” how to, link L2, Chart, T&S etc
     -How to on presetting share size and route
     -Order entry tips
     -T&S tweaks
     -Show trades and show orders on chart setup
     -How to execute an order
IU offerings
     –Scans
     -Chat
     -Webinars
     -PM
     -Video lessons

Watchlist for 7-29-2015 – $RADA, $NYMX, $SLTD, $OGXI, $ITEK

Today’s Plan:

Frustrating and annoying day yesterday, in the end, it finished fine, -$150. But I wasted sooo much time and emotion on $ITEK, I even said early in the morning I was feeling FOMO around it and knew I should just stay away. Instead I shorted into some fading action and then was “stuck” almost all day. Like always happens with shitty entries, you get squeezed (hopefully survive) then cover at the worst possible time, as in yesterday, right before it cracked. That being said I would at best made 50 cents a share. But the most annoying part is I wasted like 6 hours watching every tick. When it would not crack $17.40 repeatedly I should have covered for a small gain and moved on.

I am pleased in that I stuck to my plan and did not hold it overnight. While it is not doing much pre market, I managed to ruin my day watching it, sooooo happy I didnt ruin my evening by holding and hoping. I had a great night fishing with my son and didnt feel the need to grab my phone ever 5 minutes to refresh and see if it was going crazy after hours.

Today’s List: Full list from Yahoo Finance

RADA Electronic Industries Ltd. (RADA) -NasdaqCM

Lots of eyes on this, its just not up that much, if it can get crazy I’m interested.

Target: $3.00

RADA

Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation (NYMX) -NasdaqCM

I bitched a lot about missing this yesterday, but in the end it was nothing really that great. Will watch for some pops.

Target: $2.75

NYMX

Solar3D, Inc. (SLTD) -NasdaqCM

Grinding up but no volume, ideally it wakes up.

Target: $4.50-$4.75

SLTD

OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OGXI) -NasdaqCM

This was the big pisser of the day, I had shorts at $3.90 but covered super quick for some dumb reason, it faded literally all day with no real reason to ever cover… Hoping for a spike to get entry.

Target: $3.75

OGXI

Inotek Pharmaceuticals Corporation (ITEK) -NasdaqGM

This is on ignore unless it goes TRUE para, I mean $21-$22+ otherwise the wide spread and annoying jumpiness are not worth it. I gave it 6 hours of my life yesterday its not getting any more…

Target: Huge para spike

ITEK

Textbook Trading – Notes and Review of Chapter 8 – OTC Trading by @investorslive

Table of contents:

If you find these notes and reviews useful please consider purchasing Textbook Trading through this affiliate link:

Summary:

I’ll admit this is my least favorite chapter so far and I’m assuming it will be overall. That being said it is not bad by any stretch of the imagination it’s just OTC stuff, especially going long promo’s and washouts is just not anything I have ever done nor am I interested in.

intro

Nate does a great job of explaining the in’s and outs of the sketchy OTC markets for sure though. I think a lot of new traders like to get their feet wet trading OTC and true penny stocks. If you are that type of trader this chapter would be very useful.

The one section I feel could assist my trading is the gap plays. I have tried this from time to time but usually I’m just following other traders out of boredom or lack of plays in the late afternoon. While I’m not sure if I’m ready to try these sorts of plays out yet, I feel I do understand them more and have a better idea of what to look for.

pumpers

Some of the longer and more interesting discussions revolve around the history of pumpers. I think when this DVD came out and slightly before, these types of setups were working and it was useful to know the pumpers and their ability to move stocks. Not sure if it’s really very relevant right now. Of course it will come back, it always does. I just had trouble focusing a little during some of these since I knew it wasn’t really tradeable info right now.

review

If you are new to trading though, it is a very informative discussion of how the shady side of trading works. And of course keep in mind this DVD is two years old, so its no fault of the creator that some of the info is dated.

Notes:

OTC Textbook setups
-Look for levels on intraday but match up with daily
-Breakouts and consolidation
-ABCD
-good risk on breakdown of consolidation
Anticipating Gap Plays
-Bullish chart breaking out
-HISTORY of gapping
-watch at 3:00-3:30 then out first 5-10 minutes next day
-dont’ chase, wait for a pull back
-can get crowded so need to be quick
-need to follow trend
-can often be influence by newsletters pumpers etc
Gearing and perking – risk vs reward
-10X rule instead of $10-$12 – $1.00-$1.20
-ABCD
Pumpers
-old names, but the setups remain
-need to focus on the pumpers with hot hands
-can be hot and cold, even if the last one worked does not mean the next one will
-D rated pumpers
-good to short crappy pumpers vs trying to go long
-good explanation of how pumping works and the psychology behind it
-check history
-good explanation of “splitting lists”
-History and explanation of tickers
-tough to play big on promo’s now
Nice Price is Right video 🙂

OTC Shorts
-Get bought in a lot T+3
-know the shitty pumper
Panic Morning washout

Bounce plays
-Need to recognize blocks
-Need true panic
-big volume

Watchlist for 7-28-2015 – $ITEK, $NYMX, $SLTD, $OGXI, $MNOV

Today’s Plan:

Watchlist was spot on yesterday, basically everything worked. Unfortunately my actual execution was poor. Profited on $MNOV and $ITEK, but left sooo much on the table. I think I was trying to follow too much so the instant I saw green on either I covered. Need to work on focusing down to 2-4 main watches instead of trying to follow all 8-10 on watch closely.

Today’s List: Full list from Yahoo Finance

Inotek Pharmaceuticals Corporation (ITEK) -NasdaqGM

Plan: Crazy range on this, I’m thinking this probably pulls hard soon, but I will focus on entries.

Target: Squeeze, will not short fading or grinding, I’ll only short this if it goes batshit to the upside.

ITEK

Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation (NYMX) -NasdaqCM

Plan: I think there might be an offering already out. Will short pops towards $3.

Target: $3.00

NYMX

Solar3D, Inc. (SLTD) -NasdaqCM

Plan: Leaving this on watch for some reason, but all the volume has come out.

Target: $4.50

SLTD

OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OGXI) -NasdaqCM

Plan: Chart is probably a solid long at this point, but I’ll wait for a spike.

Target: $4.00+

OGXI

MediciNova Inc. (MNOV) -NasdaqGM

Plan: Moving pre market so I’m curious. Watching for spikes

Target: $5.00+

MNOV

Textbook Trading – Notes and Review of Chapter 7 – Morning Emotion & Faders by @investorslive

Table of contents:

If you find these notes and reviews useful please consider purchasing Textbook Trading through this affiliate link:

Summary:

Looked forward to re-watching this chapter and was happy with what I found. These types of setups are my bread and butter, though I can surely get much better at them.. Today (7/27/2015) was a perfect example on $ITEK, sure I traded it for +0.50 a share but I botched it royally by not recognizing lower highers and holding into fading actions. It was a thin and jumpy stock so not a perfect example but the whole time I watched this chapter I was face palming over my trade on $ITEK.

intro

This is a great chapter for the beginning or moderate short seller. The biggest benefit to this type of setup is it gives you a solid and easily recognizable place to set risk. The scary thing about parabolic shorts is it can be very hard for the new trader with limited experience to stick to his stops, because other than whole numbers there is really no true spot to pick. The beauty of the big spikes/fades is you can take that HOD level or the previous day HOD as a stop. Then even if the trade goes against you it’s easy even with limited discipline to say “Listen it’s bumping the HOD this thing is gonna break out if I don’t cover now.”

lowerhigh

Lots of solid chart examples in this chapter, with great commentary. It is important to see these charts in order to recognize the grinding type action. No doubt one of my biggest issues is overlooking higher lows and failure to break down. So many including for sure myself add into higher lows, this is a TERRIBLE idea. These setups work most of the time, but if you add into ABCD or grinding you will ALWAYS and I mean ALWAYS get squeezed out by a spike then 9 times of 10 the stock will still fade. Where had you recognized the stock was still not ready to sell off you would have kept your size manageable and added into a winner instead.

review

This setup is often referred to as the “HOD rejection” as well. And in my opinion is the most reliable setup there is. But you need to focus only on BIG charts and stay away from stocks that are strong for a good reason. Like any short you need to be a sniper and pick only the best setups. These comes with experience but I think Nate does a solid job in this chapter explaining how to recognize these setups as well and most important how to set risk and stick to stops.

Summary

Taking advantage of morning emotion – short
     -Scalp
     -Prior day high as stop  – set risk
     -pops are met with selling
     -take quick gains, especially if ABCD sets up
Failed follow through momentum
     -big morning move, then drop and no continuation
     -Red to green good place to set risk
     -HOD set risk
     -Big charts/overextended
     -Good use of support and resistance levels
     -another good use of prior day, especially late in the day high as risk
     -lower highs – continue fade
     -higher lows – exit
     -ABCD – cutoff or take profits
Overextend fader – lower highs – late day fader
     -momentum shift
     -backside move – high R/R
     -pops become entries
Late day fade – lower high
     –Has place to set risk vs parabolic trade. – defined by support/resistance levels
     -wait for top to be set – morning emotion
     -Look for base – support levels- wait for crack for entry with lower highs
     -capitalize on profit taking into close
     -Patience to wait for fading. Ignore while it grinds
     -These can be solid swings/multidays
What does “grinding” look like – stops
     -do not add add add to a loser, only to a winner
     -good easy and “slow” what to pick exit – easy to not get trapped if you stick to it
     -Have a plan – but always have a “MONEY” stop loss – max pain
     –If you are wrong let yourself be wrong
HOD REJECT model

Watchlist for 7-27-2015 – $ITEK, $SLTD, $CALA, $RBCC, $NTLS, $VLTC

Today’s Plan:

Travel day on Friday so no trades, looks like I missed some solid action on $ITEK. Glad to see more true POS pennystocks in play, while I was green last week it was annoying trading $GPRO, $FIT, $PYPL etc. Every stock on watch today is a POS. Thats how I like it!

Today’s List: Full list from Yahoo Finance

Inotek Pharmaceuticals Corporation (ITEK) -NasdaqGM

Though I’m sure plenty will make money I’m going to try and avoid this out of the gate. Ideally it squeezes first thing, then fades all day. Will devise a plan to try and set risk on a HOD type setup.

Target: Fade after spike to new highs.

ITEK

Solar3D, Inc. (SLTD) -NasdaqCM

Watching for a spike to get short into, ideally squeezes out weekend shorts.

Target: SS @ $4.20 with a risk on $4.50

SLTD

Calithera Biosciences, Inc. (CALA) -NasdaqGS

Target: Looking to short spikes with risk on $10

CALA

Rainbow Coral Corp. (RBCC) -Other OTC

Illiquid OTC stock, but how can you NOT want to short an aquarium coral company that has moved into some sort of bio 3D printing blah blah, and is up like 600%!?!?

Target: $7

RBCC

NTELOS Holdings Corp. (NTLS) -NasdaqGS

Target: Short pops with risk on Friday’s high.

NTLS

Voltari Corporation (VLTC) -NasdaqCM

Last on my watch list on purpose, I try to ignore these types because “everybody” is watching it. Mainly keeping on radar.

Target: Pop’s to $8.50 risk on $9.00

VLTC

Watchlist for 7-23-2015 – $EXEL, $SLTD, $DERM, $FRO, $FIT, $GPRO

Well that was fun I'm gonna buy 5 Hero4's thanks @investorslive $GPRO @iuchat

A photo posted by Timothy C. Bohen (@tbohen) on

Today’s Plan:

Traded $GRPO ok yesterday, though of course it fell apart minutes after I covered. After that, didnt trade at all. I guess I felt “lucky” to get those gains with nothing great on watch and wanted to protect them.

Today looks to be the same as all week, going to do my best to filter for one good setup to trade at or around the open and move on.

Today’s List: Full list from Yahoo Finance

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) -NasdaqGS

Came close to entering this about 100 times yesterday, but I don’t fully understand the offering news. Still watching, but while it might collapse after the news comes out, I don’t want to wait and find out, if it gets crazy parabolic or fades hard I’ll trade it, no grinds.

Target: Para or < $6 EXEL

Solar3D, Inc. (SLTD) -NasdaqCM

Solar and a POS so this is going to attract all kinds of shorts. Its up a lot, but I want a big move.

Target: $4.75-$5.00

SLTD

Dermira, Inc. (DERM) -NasdaqGS

I like the chart but VERY illiquid, I’ll use the @investorslive 10X rule and treat this like a $2.40 stock.

Target: $29-$30

DERM

Frontline Ltd. (FRO) -NYSE

Had my target at $3.50 yesterday and it never got there, this will go on ignore unless it goes vertical. Again if it grinds and grinds I’m not going to get stuck shorting and wasting my day watching it go up a penny every 30 minutes.

Target: $3.74-$4.00

FRO

Fitbit Inc. (FIT) -NYSE, GoPro, Inc. (GPRO) -NasdaqGS

Same for both of these as “backup plays” will trade them reactively. Into big spikes or around whole and half dollar marks, or like yesterday on Green to Red type moves.

FIT

GPRO

Textbook Trading – Notes and Review of Chapter 6 – Shorts and Over Extensions by @investorslive

Table of contents:

If you find these notes and reviews useful please consider purchasing Textbook Trading through this affiliate link:

Summary:

1-Intro

For sure my favorite chapter so far. Not only because shorting is my best and most consistent trade setup, but also because I feel like Nate is really hitting his stride at creating the DVD at this point. Of course it may also be be related to the fact that at his heart he is a short seller, so I think I sensed a little more enthusiasm in this chapter.

2-Para

Nate starts out with probably the most consistently profitable though dangerous setup, the parabolic move. He does a good job explaining why this is so risky since there is no clear spot to set risk on. When a stock fits this pattern it is going bat shit crazy and it’s very hard to say “OK if it hits X I’m out”, because you can’t solve for X. This is where you have to use your rules to determine your “Oh shit level”. If you are willing to risk $100, $500 or $10,000 you need to be disciplined enough to enter and then exit at that point if it goes against you.

3-Powerclose

Next setup is the power glose and gap up parabolic. In my opinion these are the most common short squeezes and traps. Its very easy to short something mid day, then grit your teeth into the close only to be squeezed out 5 minutes after the open. Of course, if you are smart, and learn from this chapter you can capitalize on those early shorts. Avoid mid day grinding and short into the gap up the next day. This section I felt was particularly useful.

4-intradaypara

Next Nate covers intraday parabolics and kind of what I’d call HOD moves. These are a little more difficult to explain so its nice that he uses tons and tons of charts and setups to explain it. I particularly like the flipping back and forth between daily and intraday charts. One thing I can tend to get lazy on is matching up multiple time frames intraday. This section was a good reminder to always have an idea of what the daily looks like.

5-Review

In closing the most valuable lesson of this chapter was explaining to the new or growing short seller how to differentiate between a solid risk to reward short and a stock that is “up a lot”. I’ve seen it a million times and I’m sure Nate has seen it 10 million times, but the biggest roadblock to becoming a successful short seller is being able to make this differentiation. If you pay attention I think this chapter can teach and show you that.

Notes:

Parabolic Shorts
Over extended Charts
Over extended Consolidation
Power close gap up Parabolic
Intraday Parabolic
What is parabolic action?
Traps
All these setups can keep going, even if they are solid short setups, that does not mean they die long term
Parabolic Short
     -Drawback is there is no set risk, no place to set a top
     -HOD, former top etc
     -Overextended charts, going going going, no pullbacks
     -Just because it pops does not mean its a short
     -Lots of good charts to demonstrate
     –Notice grinding transition to parabolic
     -Parabolic – speed up relative to previous action – need to learn this important
     -Take advantage of emotion
Over extended Consolidation
     -Overextended, but second wave up
     -Can use lower highs and late day fade – HOD rejection type
     -Even if para if it holds higher lows, odds are you will get a squeeze – no capitulation
     -Need to recognize consolidation/higher lows
Power close gap up Parabolic
     -Closes on HOD with big daily range
     -Another huge move right at the open
     -Emotion out  of the gate, momo longs taking profits/getting spooked
     -No place to set stop, so you need  to have disciple to enforce your dollar loss rules
     -Good example on JASO, previous day took all day to move $1, para day it moved $1.50 in 15 minutes (THATS PARA)
     -Can set risk on pre market high
     -With patience you can also set risk on day high after para move for all day fade
     -Need to recognize para’s for exits or you will get squeezed
     -With no set risk you need to pick a dollar amount you are willing to lose, $100, $500, $1000 and stick to it.
     -Capitalize on chasers
Intraday Parabolic Price Action
     -Speed up relative to previous
     -whole and half dollar numbers
     -Emotion on air, quick nail and bail, not a swing short setup