New year, new skill.

Post Quality: D-

I’ll admit super busy day, this post could probably be summarized in a tweet, but committed to my goal of posting every day. Whether it be fitness, welding, carpentry, programming, plumbing, electrical, or other skills I’ve been committed to improving and getting better every year. Any human can accomplish amazing things in a year if focused.

This year my “side project” is to learn anything and everything I can about crypto currencies. From what I have seen so far all the standard trading methodologies and process’s apply, what I lack is understanding the underlying “fundamentals” and mechanics.

I’ve made this analogy many times, but I built an ISP from the ground up with 14.4K modems all the way up to GB fiber. IMHO we are in the 14.4K modem days of this run.

If you aren’t learning trading, programming or some other skilled trade, mental or physical use the post to redirect your energy. I will be dedicating a couple hours a day to get more in depth, and will blog here about my learning process.

Get strapped in, 2018 has amazing prospects.

 

Response to @ozarktrades “2017 trading review”

Link to original post: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sqcm19

I often rant about “overly biased loud mouth shorts on twitter” and because of these rants get a fair amount of guff in return from traders that seem to think “short and hold” is a viable strategy for new or small traders. I’ll be the first to admit my motivation can be very “white knight’ish” but at the same time the primary rational behind my defense of the small and/or new trader is we are talking about a public network, Fintwit. Am I anti short selling? Nothing can be further from the truth. Am I anti using a large twitter following to convince small traders that if they just “keep holding” the rewards will come? Yes.

There are typically two profiles that describe the “overly biased loud mouth shorts on twitter” the first is the trader that swings a big line and can short the front side and keep adding higher which creates the “you can’t squeeze me” bravado. Second is the fundamental short that will take a position early in the move and proceed to bash the stock 10,20,50 or even more times a day, offering constant justification and links to defend that this stock “cant possibly go higher”.

Phil aka “OzarkTrades” is NEITHER of these.

In this post I would like to address several great points that Phil makes and attempt to draw parallels to defend my point that shorting in today’s market is not very accessible to the new and/or small trader, and again while it is a viable strategy for new traders, should be avoided until the market changes. I have been actively day trading and short selling for close to ten years, the last 2 years have been unlike any market I have seen. So many low priced stocks go higher than you would have ever expected on Day 1, and so often continue over multiple days, weeks, and even MONTHS. If you are a new trader shorting small size or even worse shorting on margin, you CANNOT survive these moves no matter what the “overly biased loud mouth shorts on twitter” say.

My biggest month of the year was November with 1.3 million in gains thanks to the hype in crypto currencies. (No I do not trade cryptos but the equities that are tied to them) I was profitable every month in 2017 and again most of my money was made on the short side.

First off I would like to congratulate Phil on an incredible year! I have considered Phil a role model for several years and he is a great guy with honesty and integrity. Though him and I are are mostly “internet friends” we have met briefly several times and he is quick with a handshake and a smile and seems genuinely interested in conversations with any trader new or veteran. There is nothing I enjoy more than seeing people I look up to and my friends succeed. Since we have only met a few times, Phil may think the “friend” moniker is a little aggressive but oh well. 🙂

After trading for 11 years it is fairly easy to identify the top setups. The timing is obviously the difficult part.

This point can NEVER be stressed enough and I’m pleased Phil starts the post with this. All traders new, intermediate or advanced KNOW these stocks will ultimately fail. But what will happen between Point A – C and what will happen during Point B. That is the ultimate question in trading, particularly on the short side. It does not matter if Point C is ultimately a “zero” if your account becomes a “zero” during the B Phase. My perspective again to the new trader is, why not try and take a small part of the run up from A through part of B, take small gains, focus on wins and build your account, do not try to be a hero on the short side early.

Again, I’m a believer that the big money is in the big wins. Personally, I don’t try to hit it big every day or every week but I try to take full advantage of the 6-7-8 ect big setups a year.

This quote wraps up a GREAT paragraph on being aggressive and sizing into your favorite setups, which again is the golden rule of a advanced trader. But back to 99% of Fintwit, this 99% needs to focus on building an account and getting better at your process, trading 6 times a year it will be very difficult to build a small account. And of course I’ll get responses like “Don’t trade with a small account” But remember my point is we are talking about Twitter, the truth is 99.9999% of the traders on twitter are small and looking for ideas and help in getting better. I may be wrong but I don’t think many billion dollar hedge fund managers are coming to Twitter for trading ideas.

In 2017 I worked every single day even on vacation. Yes I bring a laptop even on vacation because you never know what could happen.

Sometimes it does suck to sit at the desk from 6am to 3pm (central time) waiting for that one stock to break but it usually always pays off, especially if you learn to take time off when things are not so hot.

Love both these points, if you are not 100% committed to trading your odds of success are exponentially lower. I read the opening line of this paragraph and chuckled thinking, “Been there, done what”. I also worked EVERY day of 2017. Including on vacation. Both Phil and I have young children and we both greatly value our time with them, but hey, nobody goes to the pool before noon anyway, and if you get up early before the family you can easily put in a solid day of work and improvement and still have 12 hours to spend with the family. Daddy’s got to pay the bills.

And it does suck to sit there all day every day, but as a trader you are “never done” and I’ve seen countless sniper analogies to the point of nauseam, and I’ve used them myself too many times. But if you are unwilling to train nonstop and wait for “the shot” consider another career. I NEVER get tired of studying stocks, studying other traders, studying myself.

There has been 1 big difference for short sellers in 2017 and that has been the dramatic increase in Htb fees and short interest.

Back to my opening statement, when I get asked “why do you bust short sellers chops all the time?” this statement by Phil may be one of the biggest reasons. Trading constantly evolves and changes, and I recognized a shift in 2016. I do not know the internal workings of brokerage firms, but I believe firms recognized the rampant demand of short sellers to get aggressive and “pay up” for borrows. I’m old enough to remember how difficult it was to borrow shares, particularly over multiple days and weeks. I think this seismic shift in short availability and willingness to pay these fees has created some of the multiple day and week squeezes. Therein lies my advice to the new trader, look to profit on the front side of these moves, recognize that “everyone” is short and you do not need a special brokerage account.

Again, the key is to cut those losses quickly and look for re-entry. Trust me I am the king of taking paper cut losses.

Always the “golden rule” of trading and it cannot be stressed enough. Although my point is, this is “easy to say” for a veteran. But if you are a newer trader on Fintwit and see “The fundamental short that will take a position early in the move and proceed to bash the stock 10,20,50 or even more times a day, offering constant justification and links to defend that this stock “cant possibly go higher”. I mentioned above, you will almost always form a bias, thinking “This trader with a large following knows his stuff, I’ll hold.” Be willing to trade your own ideas and stop out when your trade plan says you will stop out. I respect Phil for never going on twitter and bashing a stock no matter how positive he is in his thesis.

I still don’t understand why traders will start a short on the upside and say they will add higher. How did that methodology work on DRYS in 2016?

Ahh yes my favorite Twitter short seller quote “Will add higher.” Few things make me pound my desk in rage more than that saying. If you have a twitter account with a large following and are known for being a proficient short seller, posting this statement to twitter should get your fingers slammed in a door. What possible goal can be accomplished by stating this on PUBLIC NETWORK? In my humble opinion this phrase is only used in a malicious manner. We all know early shorts will get squeezed out and add fuel to the fire. Best I can figure the only justification for this statement is hoping to torch small traders to accelerate the upside move so that said large trader can create a greater trade opportunity for themselves. This may be the single biggest takeaway from my writeup, if you are following big name traders touting the willingness to “add higher” proceed with caution my friends.

If we have a low float that is being manipulated, then being stubborn will just get you run over.

As a new or aspiring short seller please avoid “float rotating” stocks. There are so many other stocks to short and so many better times, when the volume has dried up. Be patient, wait and you will be rewarded, but if you are shorting on days the float is rotating I wish you luck, you will need it.

Phil wraps up the post with some great advice on being diversified and having backup plans. I’ll let you refer to the linked post above, some very solid advice and I recommend reading and re-reading his post.

In the end my point is, be inspired by the amazing possibilities in trading, we are in a market unlike any I have ever seen in my 10 years. Use these posts by great traders like Phil to plan for the future. But in the end, perspective is everything. Many of the trades and techniques he employs on a daily basis, including using 6-7 high minimum brokerage accounts, boxing trades, hedging with options etc, are not yet accessible to you as a new trader.

Learn charting, learn how to process the news and fundamentals and focus on making small and consistent wins on the long side of these fast moving stocks. After you are a consistently profitable trader with a medium sized account and some consistency and success under your belt, then look to be a “big swinging dick” short seller. But when you make that step, please promise me you WILL follow in Phil’s steps and NOT blast twitter with the “this stock is a zero” or “will add higher” nonsense.

Thanks to Phil for a great post.

 

 

 

Write every day project – Day 1

Photo Credit: Zen Pencils

Post Quality Rating: C-

For a guy that has had “be a writer” on his to do list, I do an almost awe inspiring little amount of writing. I’ve read hundreds of articles and books on writing and let me save you some time, in the end they all basically boil down to “If you want to be a writer, write.”

I’ve come and gone in fits and spurts, and the new years “reboot” seems as a good a time as any to rekindle the routine.

I’ll commit to writing the first thing in the day, spending 15 minutes to an hour each at at 4:30-4:45AM. Topics will vary but of course be centered on my main passions and hobbies:

  • Finance / typically day trading focused
  • Fitness
  • General Productivity
  • Writing
  • Making – particularly focused on my current biggest interest, cabinet making

The thought is that by pushing “something” out every day it will be like a snowball rolling down hill and ideally a few weeks and months the quality and value will build.

Good news dear reader, I will “grade” each post at the beginning, while you may or may not agree in the end, you will at least be able to recognize if I perceive the post as having value.  Notice above this post garners a “C-“.

Had this post been longer I would probably give it an even lower grade, but since it takes only a few moments to read and introduces the project I think a middle of the road grade is appropriate.

Thank you for reading.

 

 

 

Recent Podcast appearance with @million_first

Recently I was fortunate enough to be asked to appear on an up and coming podcast “The First Million.” Not sure if I deserve to be a guest but I had a great time doing it. The guys starting this podcast up were awesome to talk to and did a killer job as hosts.

LOGO

If you have a minute check out the podcast and also follow them on social media. Even if you don’t enjoy listening to me ramble on for an hour give them a follow, I see big things coming from these guys and this podcast.

The primary focus of this podcast is my early entrepreneurial experience creating a startup in my early 20’s and then focusing on my daily routines and methods. Most of which are stolen from other peak performers like Tim Ferris, Jocko Willink, Joe Rogan etc.

If you enjoy it or even if you don’t, if you make it to the end of it, drop me a line and let me know what you think! Thanks

Twitter:

Facebook:

Itunes:

Website:

podcast

Is There Any Reason to Keep Up with the News? | via @artofmanliness

“A contemporary dictator wishing to establish power would not need to do anything so obviously sinister as banning the news: he or she would only have to see to it that news organizations broadcast a flow of random-sounding bulletins, in great numbers but with little explanation of context, within an agenda that kept changing, without giving any sense of the ongoing relevance of an issue that had seemed pressing only a short while before, the whole interspersed with constant updates about the colorful antics of murderers and film stars. This would be quite enough to undermine most people’s capacity to grasp political reality — as well as any resolve they might otherwise have summoned to alter it. The status quo could confidently remain forever undisturbed by a flood of, rather than a ban on, news.”

Source: Is There Any Reason to Keep Up with the News? | The Art of Manliness

“I don’t know a single truly creative mind who is a news junkie — not a writer, not a composer, mathematician, physician, scientist, musician, designer, architect or painter. On the other hand, I know a bunch of viciously uncreative minds who consume news like drugs. If you want to come up with old solutions, read news. If you are looking for new solutions, don’t.”

The Work is Never Done (And I Feel Fine) – Good trading advice from @Cernovich

Sales, medicine, law, engineering, craftsmanship, and trades like plumbing and electricity allow for continued growth in knowledge and skills. What you learn today builds on your mistakes and successes of yesterday, and what you learn tomorrow will build on today’s victories and defeats.

Source: The Work is Never Done (And I Feel Fine)

Add stock trading to this list of skills that you always need to learn/evolve, but never master.

67 Tips on Happiness, Fullfillment & Life via @JasonFerruggia

“The meaning of life is that it is to be lived.”– Bruce Lee

1) Always have a quest.

2) Don’t feel the need to justify your opinion.

3) Cut your expenses in half. Then cut them again.

4) Don’t die without any scars. Like Tyler Durden advised.

5) Remember that everyone wants to feel important.

6) Don’t fall into “the busy trap.” It’s okay to not always be “on your grind,” 24/7.

7) Learn something from everyone you meet.

8) Take more risks without fear of making mistakes.

9) Sweat every day.

10) Get Facebook and email off your phone.No one ever got rich checking their email more often.”– Noah Kagan

11) Never “grow up.”

12) If you haven’t worn something in more than two months get rid of it.

13) Send more hand written notes.

14) Not everyone will like you. You need to be okay with that.

15) You don’t have to respond to every Tweet, email, call or text message. That’s a form of slavery.

16) Question authority.

17) Learn to do something artistic- paint, draw, play an instrument.

18) Keep your cell phone off the dinner table.

19) Get punched in the face at least once. Everyone needs that. (Keeping your phone on the table is a good way to facilitate that)

20) Say “please” and “thank you” more than everyone else.

21) Repeat a persons name aloud when you first meet them.

22) Never waste time arguing on the internet.

23) Carry a book with you wherever you go. A real book.

24) When you’re with friends or family members, be with them 100%. Don’t think about work or check your phone.

25) Make a difference in someone’s life.

26) Never discuss how much money you make.

27) Go for a walk every day.

28) Be the first one to try everything.

29) Slow down.Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.”– Lao Tzu

30) Don’t watch the news. It’s depressing. If something important happens you’ll know.

31) Tell your friends you love them.

32) Smile before you pick up the phone and say “hello.”

33) Give advice only when it’s asked for.

34) Don’t give it a second time if the person didn’t listen the first.

35) Do things that make you uncomfortable.

36) Everyone’s looking for a leader. Stand up and lead.

37) Turn off your cell phone after 8pm. Or at least set some kind of boundaries.

38) Get out of debt. Take it from someone who was buried in it.

39) Spend more time doing only things you’re passionate about.

40) Change the way things are normally done.

41) Say less, listen more.

42) Think long and hard before you make the decision to go to college or grad school. Read The Education of Millionaires before you do. And visit this website.

43) Challenge the status quo.Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.”– Mark Twain

44) Spend some time to come up with a really fucking cool bucket list and start working your way through it.

45) Make more time to spend with your friends and family.

46) Get your hands dirty.

47) Daydreaming and saying “I want” or “I wish” are the signs of an amateur. Be a pro.

48) Do things that scare the shit out of you.

49) Remove all stressful people and situations from your life.

50) Whenever you see a member of the military, thank them.

51) Pick up the check.

52) Travel more. This doesn’t always cost as much as you think. Read this book for some ideas.

53) Help others make their dreams come true.

54) Anger, jealously and bitterness ruin your life. Be happy for everyone.

55) Laugh every day.

56) Pay your credit cards off each month. “Too many people spend money they haven’t earned, to buy things they don’t want, to impress people they don’t like.”– Will Rogers

57) Reinvent yourself.

58) Dream bigger. Most people don’t think they can accomplish big things so they settle for mediocrity. Don’t be like everyone else.

59) Quit your job. Life shouldn’t be spent doing shit you hate. Benefits and security aren’t worth your happiness.

60) Save more of your money. Trust me on this.

61) Read The War of Art by Steven Pressfield.

62) Everyone wants to change the world. That doesn’t make you unique. Acting on that desire does.

63) Eat your steak rare.

64) Drink your coffee black.

65) Try completely unplugging one day per week. Or at least, per month.

66) Remember the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, “Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.”

67) Call your mom more often. Now would be a good time.

Source: 67 Tips on Happiness, Fullfillment & Life

Persistance

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge